The math of a lead package

Lead packages in the Canadian market are typically sold as a monthly subscription — a few hundred to a couple of thousand dollars — for a promised flow of buyer or seller leads. The pitch is always volume. The economics are never volume. So let’s take a representative package at $799 a month, state every assumption out loud, and follow the money to a closing. Every number below is a labelled assumption, not a quote from any vendor — as of mid-2026, published rates vary widely by market and exclusivity, and the point of this essay is the method, not the menu. For the survey of what leads cost in Canada, that page is here.

From dollars to leads

Assume the $799 package delivers leads at an effective $50–$80 per lead — a mid-range figure for shared portal-style buyer leads. That is 10 to 16 leads a month. Notice what just happened: the package’s headline is the monthly fee, but the only number that matters so far is the implied cost per lead, and vendors quoting identical monthly fees can differ by double on it. Always divide first. Whether those leads are exclusive or resold to several agents changes the value of each one — the pay-per-lead page covers that distinction.

From leads to conversations

A lead is a form fill, not a person waiting by the phone. Industry experience puts contact rates on purchased leads anywhere from 30% to 60% depending almost entirely on response speed — minutes matter far more than scripts. Take a middling 40%: our 10–16 leads become 4–6 real conversations. This is the step where the package’s fate is decided, and it is the step the package vendor has no control over. The same $799 produces wildly different outcomes in the hands of an agent who calls in 5 minutes versus one who calls after dinner.

From conversations to closings

Assume a quarter of real conversations become appointments and a third of appointments eventually transact — generous but defensible for a long nurture horizon. The chain now reads: 13 leads → 5 conversations → 1.3 appointments → around 0.4 transactions a month, or roughly one closing per quarter. Cost per closing: about $2,400 ($799 × 3). Against a gross commission of, say, $20,000 on a typical GTA transaction — your number will differ — that is a strong return on paper. On paper.

The two numbers that break it

First, attrition you did not price in: most purchased leads close 6 to 18 months out, if ever, so the model above only works if you nurture unfailingly for quarters before the first cheque. Agents who quit the package in month three paid for a pipeline they never harvested. Second, the conversion-rate cliff: cut the contact rate to 25% and the close-through by half — slow follow-up, shared leads — and cost per closing quadruples toward $10,000. The package did not change. Your system did. That sensitivity is the honest answer to buying versus generating your own: purchased leads rent someone else’s funnel, and the rent is only worth paying if your follow-up machine is already built.

Run your own numbers

Our conclusion is not “never buy leads.” It is: never buy them on the vendor’s arithmetic. Put your real contact rate, your real close rate, and your real commission into the chain and see what a closing costs — the lead ROI calculator does the whole cascade in a minute. If the math works, buy with eyes open and nurture like you mean it. If it only works at the vendor’s assumed rates, you now know exactly what you were about to pay for.